The first few months of the CBAM’s implementation are already revealing serious risks for Ukraine’s steel industry and the economy as a whole.

The first few months of the CBAM’s implementation are already revealing serious risks for Ukraine’s steel industry and the economy as a whole.

According to GMK Center estimates, the tariff burden on Ukrainian producers will rise from 12% in 2026 to 26% in 2030. The consequences could be critical: a complete halt to exports of long products and square billets, a 75% reduction in pig iron exports, and a 30% reduction in flat product exports.

By 2030, losses in steel exports could reach $1.75 billion, and CBAM payments could amount to €1.2 billion. This is effectively equivalent to two years of capital investment in the industry.

Most importantly, the impact will not be limited to the steel industry. A decline in production will affect logistics, Ukrzaliznytsia, tax revenues, and the country’s currency stability. Against the backdrop of the war and dependence on international support, these risks become systemic for Ukraine’s entire economy.