The USDA forecasts that Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports will rise to 5 million metric tons
In the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine could increase sunflower oil exports to 5 million metric tons — an increase of nearly 24% compared to the previous season. This growth will be supported by a recovery in sunflower yields and an increase in processing volumes, according to the September forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA expects sunflower production in Ukraine to rise from 10.7 million metric tons in 2025/26 to 13 million metric tons in 2026/27 — an increase of approximately 21.5%. Sunflower oil production is projected at 5.418 million metric tons, compared with 4.515 million metric tons the previous season.
According to the USDA forecast, sunflower oil exports will increase from 4.036 million to 5 million metric tons. Sunflower meal shipments may rise from 2.861 million to 3.3 million metric tons, while sunflower seed exports could increase from 40,000 to 100,000 metric tons.
Positive trends are also expected in the global market. The USDA forecasts a 15% increase in global exports of sunflower oil and its equivalents in the 2026/27 marketing year. Larger harvests and increased shipments from Ukraine and Russia are expected to be the main drivers of growth, while the largest increase in imports is expected from India and China.
Overall, global exports of vegetable oils and oilseeds, measured in oil equivalent, could reach a record 141 million metric tons, which is 2% more than in the previous season. According to the USDA, sunflower and canola oils will make the largest contribution to this growth.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 2026
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